1) What is a differential?

Usually <10–20% ownership. But the key is why they can outscore the template now.

2) Where edges come from

• Role change (pens, set pieces, new position).
• Fixture clusters the template ignores.
• Underlying data spiking before points.

3) Risk control

Minutes risk kills differentials. Prioritize nailed picks, then layer upside (set pieces, counterattacks, matchups).