1) A 4-step framework

1. Ceiling: shots in box, xG+xA, pens, set pieces.
2. Reliability: minutes, role stability, historical consistency.
3. Fixture: home/away, opponent defense, rest days.
4. EO (Effective Ownership): massive EO can punish fades; go differential only with real edges.

2) Practical signals

• Penalties + set pieces = hidden floor.
• Home advantage and short-haul travel help.
• Don’t captain rotation risks.

3) Template or differential?

In neutral spots, the template captain is fine. Go differential when your data/eye test both scream upside, and your rank goal needs variance.